Apple, Business, Companies, Hardware

ANALYSIS: How the Year 2011 Will Pan Out in Smartphones

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Let’s start with this incredibly volatile year of the Smartphone Bloodbath, as I called it Year 2: Electric Boogaloo. We now have the full data on first and second quarter performance, and plenty of signs into the current quarter. Given that some trends are spanning into the full year, we can do a preliminary projection for full year 2011 sales by each major brand, and the operating systems. SMARTPHONE BRAND PROJECTIONThere are several big predictions I used were as follows. In general, the trajectory of each brand follows the recent past strongly weighted on the sales change from First to Second Quarter 2011, as this

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Business, Hardware

Pondering The Blackberry Puzzle: What is Going on Here?

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Just when you think you finally have figured out RIM (Research in Motion) and its Blackberry, it goes all belly up again. But at least it’s good to see that others, including RIM management, admit to confusion about the iconic smartphone maker. It was ten years ago that Canadian ‘beeper’ maker Blackberry launched its first smartphone which had the peculiar shape, the uniquely-shaped QWERTY keyboard and was optimized for email use by busy business executives. Blackberry took the US business world by storm, soon Blackberry users were calling their device the ‘crackberry’ for its addictive nature. And to show how big a splash the early

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Business, Hardware

LG Smartphone Sales Edges Past Sony Ericsson for 6th Biggest

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We have received LG Electronics results for the second quarter 2011 and they’re quite something. South Korea’s second giant is currently the world’s third largest mobile phone manufacturer. The company is still reporting a loss in its handset unit as it is completing its costly return from its Microsoft-powered misadventure and going now full speed to Android. However, LG is begining to show its muscle, using its global dumbphone reach and brand (USA’s second-bestselling cellphone brand for example) to elbow itself up the charts both in overall smartphone sales and within the Android family. LG 2Q 2011 results? Smartphone sales up 15% to 5.4 Million units

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Business, Hardware

Microsoft Nokia Best Case Scenario: 8% Market Share in 2013

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This is a longer analysis, with some mathematical modeling and showing the logic involved. Some of my readers will want to see how I came to the conclusions. But others may only want the top-line numbers, as this is a series of articles studying the biggest destruction of market value of any corporation in the history of technology companies. EXECUTIVE SUMMARYHere is the overall projection. Please read the full analysis to see how I came to this projection. And please note, these are based on real world smartphone performance numbers and an absolute best-case, i.e. using Google Android and Apple iPhone as the benchmark –

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Business, Hardware

Nokia Folds: 15 Years After Inventing Smartphone, The King is Toppled

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Nokia results are out. 15 years after inventing the smartphone in 1996 with the iconic but outrageously expensive Nokia 9000 Communicator, and selling more smartphones than any rival every single quarter since then, we have now seen a moment in history: The king has been toppled. And that was done by who else, Apple and the iconic iPhone. Imagine going back in time, and witnessing the success of the first mass-produced automobile, the Ford Model T. Ford did not invent the car, that was Daimler-Benz (i.e. Mercedes-Benz). But while Daimler-Benz started with the world lead, it was the Ford Model T which made the car

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Business, Hardware

Sony Ericsson Reports Record Smartphone Sales, Loses $70M

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We have the first results of the big second quarter results season – today we have Sony Ericsson and Google with results. I will keep this short (A short article from Tomi? That’s incredible. Ed.) Sony Ericsson reported a decline in its overall handset sales of 31% in just one quarter, but its smartphones did grow 8% to 5.3 Million units. That gives Sony Ericsson roughly 5% market share so they are holding steady from Q1 to Q2 but may have fallen behind LG in rankings. We also learned that Sony Ericsson ships 11% of all Android phones so that gives us a Q2 Android number

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Apple, Business, Companies, Hardware

What The He… iOS Usage Down, BlackBerry Down, Symbian Usage Up?

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We have received a statistic that is so counter-intuitive and bizarre, but I think we can make some sense out of it. This comes from StatCounter who measure global web and mobile traffic. So this is not new phone sales, this is not a measurement of installed bases, it is a measurement of actual usage of devices. On StatCounter members page, I have used the filter of ‘mobile OS’ for Mobile device operating systems. Note, it is not just cellular use, it includes Wi-Fi use (Sony PlayStation Portable is included) which means that the iOS category includes both the iPhone and the iPod Touch use. But

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Business, Hardware

Bloodbath Update: Smartphone Market at June 30, 2011

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Let’s do some Bloodbath news. How is the smartphone market doing mid-way in this Year 2 of Smartphones, the Electric Boogaloo? The weather report for the summer is sunny for some, shady for others and stormy for some. Let’s start with the two who already reported. RIM IN TURMOILBlackberry maker RIM reported second quarter 2011 results first. That was the first quarter for ages that RIM reported a real units decline in smartphone sales (not just a decline in market share, which RIM had reported for several quarters while still growing total unit sales). RIM sales hit 13.3 million units, down from 14.5 million in

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Business

Wanna be the CEO of NOKIA? Take the Simple Quiz

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Take the CEO Quiz: Could you be the new CEO of Nokia? We understand that the Nokia Board of Directors uses a very complex quiz to test out its potential CEOs. This quiz is how the Board noticed how obviously incompetent the candidate Anssi Vanjoki was, and he was rejected. This quiz is how the Board discovered the highly valued wunderkind Stephen Elop the Magnificent, who was hired to run the world’s largest mobile phone manufacturer, also world’s largest smartphone maker, also world’s widest-reaching mobile phone ecosystem by a massive margin, and also (then) world’s largest smartphone OS platform. The questions are in the form

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Business

VIDEO: How Mobile Money Will Kill Cash by Tomi Ahonen

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As I often wrote over the past couple of years, the future of money is mobile and there is nothing that stands in the way of global adoption. I had the great pleasure to do the keynote presentation at the Telenor Platimo event in Belgrade, Serbia with my good friends from Halcom, the mobile money specialists. Even better, it was recorded on video and it is my latest high level overview of the future of money. This is what many digital money conferences have seen recently from me, i.e. "What if Money Had a Screen, If Money Remembered, if Money Could Talk" etc. You may enjoy

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Business, Hardware

What Happened to Blackberry? RIM in Crisis as Sales Drop

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The wheels ARE coming off RIM’s aspirations in smartphones. In 3Q of 2009 the Canadian Blackberry maker reached its peak in market share at 21%. And while its market share erosion since had been steady, but slight and gradual (about one market share point per quarter loss, down to 14% market share in 1Q of 2011) the total number of Blackberry smartphones had still be growing every single quarter up to now. RIM First Quarter 2011 ResultsAs we reported earlier, RIM’s quarterly results came out last week. For the first time we heard RIM reporting a decline in Blackberry unit sales from first to second

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Business, Hardware

How to Stop Nokia Channel Boycott And Save The Company

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Editors’ Note: With this analysis by a former Nokia VP and one of creators of 3G strategy that made the company a global success, we recommend to listen to Frey: How To Save a Life and One Republic: Apologize.Ok. Let’s try to save Nokia. What should Nokia do? IntroductionThere are two gigantic problems. If Nokia was a person, it would be in the hospital in the emergency room, where a little while ago it had stopped breathing, and now also the heart had stopped. Nokia’s doctors would need instant emergency assistance to get the heartbeat back, and to get the patient breathing. Then after that,

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Business, Hardware

Nokia 2011 Analysis: The Heart has Stopped

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Before continuing with reading, bear in mind that it was Stephen Elop which caused the initial shock, the heart attack. It was Stephen Elop’s February 11 announcement of the end of Symbian that effectively killed the sales of Symbian in the sales channel. What Nokia has since seen, is a sales channel revolt, in effect a boycott of all Nokia phones, not just smartphones. Check this out. All News Is Bad NewsThe blood is now everywhere. This is what we read everywhere. Tero Kuittinen, a telecommunication analyst writes that Nokia smartphone sales are "eroding rapidly" and the crash is happening even as the phones are now

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Business

Pyramid Research Debunked: When Analysts Live in Dreamland

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Usually I do not comment on forecasts, as I am a forecaster myself and we all make tons of mistakes in our forecasts, that is the nature of the beast. It is impossible to be completely accurate, and if by some miracle a forecaster hits it on the nose, that is always an accident. The best we can hope for as forecasters, is to be less wrong than most, and to be right more often than wrong. But this disclaimer does not excuse stupidity and it does not excuse unprofessionalism. Pyramid crossed the line with the most absurd forecast of the new decade – to

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Business, Hardware

Smartphone Wars: Nokia 1Q 2011 Results – Is Steven Elop Killing Nokia?

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Where Apple was perfection in its 1Q results, Nokia is the total opposite. Nokia results were awful in almost every way. While the industry grew smartphone sales from 4Q of 2010 to 1Q of 2011, Nokia lost unit sales in smartphones, saw declining average sales prices, lost revenues, declined profits. However, we knew this would happen. My analysis was not the first one, nor the only one to explain why the February 11 announcement of a two-year shift from Symbian (and MeeGo) to Microsoft as the operating system for Nokia’s smartphones, would damage short-term Nokia smartphone sales. This whole year we will be seeing a

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Business

Hard Estimates: Amazing Mobile World Milestones for 2011

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Witnessing the results for the first quarter of 2011 only makes us casting an eye into the next months and foresee what kind of milestones we will hit during this calendar year. SEVEN BILLION PEOPLEAnd while I love my stats in the mobile industry, this year planet earth will take the limelight, as we will hear the planet’s population passes 7 Billion people alive. It was 6.9 Billion last year. So the really big number we need to prepare for this year is 7B. 5.8B MOBILE SUBSLet’s move to the big mobile and tech numbers. If you think 5.2 Billion active mobile phone accounts was

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Business, Software Programs

Hard Reality: Smartphone Apps Bussiness Analyzed

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I have been exploring the reality of smartphone apps as a business. There is no question that we consumers love to download apps, in particular free apps. The question is – is there business case in them? Couple a months ago, I did the first major study of the economics of smartphone apps, which focused on the futility of the paid apps. That article has been widely referenced as a landmark study to expose some myths in smartphone apps. However, we did not have the data yet on the advertising side. Perhaps there is real money in the advertising in smartphone apps – as most

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Business

New Mobile Bible Released

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If you need to sum majority of important stats about the mobile industry in a single book, the TomiAhonen Almanac 2011 offers just that. It has grown again from the 2010 edition, and now runs 189 pages, and has 94 tables and charts. All the information has been updated from last year’s edition, being current as of January 1, 2011. There are new tables and charts in the apps section, handsets section, mobile advertising section etc. The full table of contents and the number of tables and charts per chapter are as follows: Chapter 1 – Intro Chapter 2 – Size of Industry (8 tables &

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Business, Software Programs

Mobile Milestones: Angry Birds, Apps, Ads, Guardian, Texting and More

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Do you know how much Angry Birds earns a month, are mobile ads worth the money or just how many apps per smartphone are there? Enter our short and sweet overview of some of the most entertaining milestones in mobile. In this article, our resident analyst of all things mobile, Tomi Ahonen, brings you several quick notes on some recent numbers that will bring a smile on your face or amuse you. Angry Birds Angry Birds, the enormously addictive smartphone game, has passed fifty millionth download on the iPhone and Android. The game has been developed by Finnish game developer Rovio Mobile headed by our friend

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Business, Hardware

Market Shift: All Phones Will Become Smartphones

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The smartphone story is buzzing in the world. But the line between a ‘featurephone’ and a smartphone is blurring too. Did you know most featurephones have full web browsers, accept apps and often have advanced inputs like touch screens or QWERTY keyboards? Total Market SizeThe year 2010 established a new record for new mobile phones sold, at about 1.37 Billion units sold. Bear in mind, that the world has only about 1.2 Billion personal computers and about 1.6 Billion television sets. But mobile phones sold almost 1.4 Billion new handsets just during the 12 months of 2010. SmartphonesSmartphones sold more than a fifth of the

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