Business, Hardware

Analysis: The Fall of Nokia

image_1467_6853

Nokia invented the smartphone. It then went and re-invented the smartphone, rightfully insisting the enterprise/corporate oriented business phone should be replaced with a bigger, consumer smartphone market. Nokia introduced a gaming oriented app store, bypassing the carriers – something that was the prototype for Apple’s App Store. They offered a touch screen smartphone two years before the iPhone. Nokia offered the world’s first phone to do the real internet, and they offered the first phone outside of Japan to offer Wi-Fi. They brought cameras to enterprise-oriented business phones. And Nokia was the first smartphone maker to boldly claim that a smartphone was a ‘real’ computer.

Read More...

Business

Digital Divide: Global Household Penetration Rates for Technology

image_1452_6838

Beginning of the year is the time when I update various technology data I collect and publish. It is no secret that one of my passions is the spread of technologies into the Emerging World markets, across the so-called Digital Divide. Late last year we had some great updated numbers from the ITU [International Telecommunication Union] about household penetration rates for such technologies as TV sets, PCs and internet use. I have plugged those numbers into my model with many other fresh data elements from sources such as the World Bank, UN, and various national regulators like Ofcom in the UK. I am happy to

Read More...

Apple, Business, Companies

Analysis: What Does Verizon iPhone Mean to The World?

image_1408_6794

I have been monitoring the iPhone from long before it was even launched, and I gave the world’s first international market opportunity analysis for the iPhone three days after it was announced and five months before the first model was sold. That is so long ago, that AT&T was still known as Cingular at that time. Funny to see that I had the international footprint for the iPhone very accurately forecasted, which is still very close to how Apple sells iPhones in 2010. In the analysis I clearly stated that Apple had to evolve the iPhone, and that a 3G/GSM version had to be offered

Read More...

Business, Hardware

Phone Book: Announcing the 11th Book by our own Tomi Ahonen

image_1328_6714

The 11th book of my writing career comes as an response for many readers. The goal of Phone Book is to be used as the companion volume to the highly popular Tomi Ahonen Almanac. While the Almanac features only one written chapter and 12 chapters filled with the tables, charts and diagrams about the handset part of the mobile industry – the new TomiAhonen Phone Book 2010 gives you 171 pages all about the handsets part of the industry, with over 90 charts, diagrams and tables. Like the Almanac, the book format is eBook and is formatted for the small screen. Thus, you can carry all

Read More...

Business, Hardware

Rare Synch Shows Fascinating Regional Split for Nokia, RIM, and Apple

image_1308_6694

This is a rare treat. We get occasional updates of regional market shares for smartphones, but it’s next to impossible for two key region reports to get released simultaneously and for the same quarter. Because of this, we cannot get solid split of smartphone shipments on a regional basis. Luckily, the stars were kindly aligned for the third quarter. You see, both Canalys and Strategy Analytics came with their market share numbers for the US and Western Europe, respectively, and both research firms focused on the third quarter of 2010. Why’s that important? Because North American and Western European markets together account for half the smarthphones sold

Read More...

Business

Analysis: 17.2M Holiday iPhones To Unseat RIM as #2 Smartphone Maker Globally

image_1307_6693

It’s time for the humble pie. When I previewed 2010 smartphone market in my Year of the Bloodbath piece from January, I analyzed every major phone brand with my best insights as to who would do well and who’d do poorly throughout the year.  The one smartphone maker that I singled out as a vendor that I thought would admittedly gain market share in 2010 was Research In Motion (RIM) and its ubiquitous Blackberry lineup. I was very sure of that forecast – until RIM last week reported the results for their fiscal 2010 third quarter ended November 27. Since we now have pretty solid information of RIM’s annual performance, it’s

Read More...

Business, Software Programs

United Nations WSA Awards: The Shift in Mobile Power

image_1269_6655

I had the honor to present the closing keynote to the WSA Conference [World Summit Awards] which is part of the United Nations initiatives to promote innovation. I got to meet many of the winners at the wonderful event hosted in Abu Dhabi this week. There was so much great innovation that was happening I am obliged to provide at least a quick comment on the scope of innovation in mobile. A decade ago, you could think that most innovations in mobile came from three countries: Japan, Finland and Sweden. Beyond those, almost all of the rest of the innovation was in Western Europe. Obviously since

Read More...

Business, Entertainment

The Shift in Advertising: LBS Steals the Show

image_1222_6608

What I can’t understand, is why some obvious things that have been written in many books for many years, and spoken in hundreds of conferences worldwide – happen so slowly. Is it due to traditional thinking of marketing agencies, which see "Communities Dominate" approach as dangerous precedent and try to keep things as controlled as possible? The fact of the matter is that there is not a lot of marketing executives that can take full advantage of 21st century resources that start with "social", "community", "mobile", "location-based" and "compute". Those who read my books know that since my second book M-Profits in 2002, I have

Read More...

Business, Enterprise, Hardware

Analysis: Record 80 Million Smartphones sold in 3Q 2010

image_1219_6605

We now have the final numbers for the total smartphone shipments, as reported by The Big Four in analyst houses: Gartner, IDC, Canalys and Strategy Analytics. As always, we took the average of their reported quarterly total numbers and are calling the third quarter total smartphone sales at 80 million even. Last quarter was at 61.7 million, but if you compare 3Q 2010 to the same quarter last year, you get shocking growth: 41.06 million to today’s 80 million is almost 100% Year-on-Year growth! So the year is only heating up with smartphone sales! I am now projecting the year to end in the 290M

Read More...

Entertainment

Girlswalker: The Future of Fashion Magazines?

image_1215_6601

Girlswalker is the coolest youth mobile magazine from that coolest/cutest country for the youth: Japan [Kawaii, as the Japanese might say…]. Personally, I have loved the idea of Girlswalker ever since I first learned about the project from my dear friend and Japan mobile guru, Lars Cosh-Ishii a few years ago. Recently, a good friend Alan Moore gave us an update on Girlswalker during his lecture at Oxford University last month. So what is it? Girlswalker is a teen youth girl’s fashion magazine, on mobile phones. Its premise – they follow and report on what the coolest Tokyo teen girls are doing and wearing. Tokyo

Read More...

Business, Entertainment

Indonesian Funbook Makes a Mark in Mobile Space

image_1211_6597

I met up with my dear friend Nicky, or Nicanor V Santiago the Director of Consumer Marketing for XL Axiata out of Indonesia, at the Mobile Asia Congress yesterday, when we spoke right one after another. Nicky and I go back a long way and he told me about their mobile social networking service called Funbook. Now, we often here write about the big famous mobile social networks in the wealthy nations like CyWorld in South Korea or Mixi and Mobage Town and Gree in Japan or Flirtomatic in the UK, USA etc. But mobile is the magical money-making machine. It works just as well

Read More...

Entertainment, Software Programs

Mobile Services and Apps are at Rage

image_1203_6589

Sitting in Cathay Pacific business lounge at KLIA, yours truly found time to address exciting trends in mobile services space. In all honesty, this autumn 2010 has been the busiest I have ever had in my career in consulting. At the same time, this being the incredibly lively and unpredictable "bloodbath year" of smartphones – probably the most news-worthy telecoms competitive situation that the industry has ever seen in a one year timeframe – that has produced so many smartphones stories. So yes, those great mobile services stories have just been collecting. But now I have a good moment to get a few of them done. So today, let’s

Read More...

Business, Hardware

Smartphone Analysis: RIM, Samsung, HTC, Motorola, SonyEricsson

image_1190_6576

I wrote updates of the Q3 results from Nokia and Apple, now the numbers 1 and 2 of the smartphone bloodbath. The rest of the contenders and pretenders are covered with this quick report. RESEARCH IN MOTION: Battle Royale with Apple For World’s #2 RIM – remember, while RIM lost its 2nd biggest ranking to Apple in this Q3, RIM still grew unit sales of Blackberries in calendar third quarter to 12.4 million [RIM estimates its own 3Q 2010 to be up to 14.8M range, so don’t be surprised if a press release shows up claiming RIM outsold Apple in "third quarter 2010", Ed.]. It

Read More...

Business, Hardware

Nokia Remains Dominant, But the Gap is Closing

image_1180_6566

Nokia total phones [dumbphones + smartphones] unit sales were down 1% from Q2 while the world phone sales grew, but Nokia is still by far the biggest phone maker in the world. Their total mobile phone market share [counting both dumbphones and smartphones] is down to about 32%, but Nokia are still bigger than nearest three rivals Samsung, LG and Apple put together. That’s market dominance. Market shift The phone market is in a process of shifting from dumbphones to smartphones. Less than a year ago Research In Motion, a pure smartphone maker, crashed into the Top 5 of all phone makers. Now Apple has

Read More...

Business

Censored Lecture: The Death of Money is Inevitable

image_1140_6526

This summer a major point happened in the history of money. The first concrete sign was seen, that the end is coming to actual coins and cash. It won’t happen quickly, but we need to be aware of the facts. Two weeks ago, Canadian Mint Director Ian Bennett thought he can silence the story about mobile money at the Mint Directors Conference in Australia. With censorship or without, we are witnessing signs of an absolute inevitable future, where at one point in time there is no more cash. The question is not if, it is only of when. This is first in a multi-part analysis

Read More...

Entertainment

Todellisuudesta Toiseen – a 143 page novel co-authored by Twitter contributors

image_1126_6512

I had the great pleasure of speaking at the annual MindTrek event in Tampere, Finland. I have many stories I have to tell from the event, including the wonderful keynote delivered by my close friend and former colleague from my Nokia days, Lauri Kivinen – who has a few months ago left Nokia’s top management to take over the job of CEO of the Finnish national broadcast company, Yle [Yleisradio] – which is kind of like the BBC of Finland, they run four TV channels and many radio channels and of course do the full digital suite of services that a modern broadcaster would do

Read More...

Business, Hardware

Battle for the Pocket: Epitaph

image_1105_6491

I wrote about the battle for the pocket in my books early in the past decade. At first the theory was very controversial. The first times I argued phones would win over PDAs or stand-alone cameras, I was crucified. Same happened here on this blog when I first suggested that the iPod’s reign was coming to an end, due to musicphones. But the theory was sound, it was only a matter of time, and I was proven right. Even Apple admitted that they had seen the rising threat of musicphones, which prompted them to create their own ‘musicphone’, i.e. what turned into the iPhone. I

Read More...

Business, Entertainment

Kraft Foods: All Your Mobile Are Belong To Us

image_1098_6484

Kraft is one of the biggest food brands in the USA, best known perhaps for their cheeses. In Europe, they’re probably most known for Milka Chocolate, which usually cannot be purchased in United States. Sometimes, I wonder could that be due to the level of quality that would destroy the sales of other Kraft-owned sweeties? but getting back on the subject, I spotted on Twitter that Kraft is using the slogan "no mobile left behind" in their mobile and digital strategy. It is actually a cross-platform strategy message, meaning, they want their online systems to remember mobile and make sure their pages and online services

Read More...

Business, Entertainment

Analysis: How Samsung Executes its Mobile Strategy

image_1096_6482

The quick version – Samsung didn’t pay much serious attention to smartphones until last year, but once it ‘woke up’ it has run on all cylinders. They tick all the boxes, and have a great strategy – which they are executing perfectly. Do I need to say more? First off – this is an Tomi Ahonen analysis, thus your latte won’t get cold while you’re reading this. Sit back and enjoy. WE LOVE EVERY PLATFORM Samsung is everywhere. They offer Symbian smartphones and Windows Mobile smartphones. They offer Google Android smartphones. As if that was not enough, they launched their own smartphone OS, called Bada.

Read More...

Business

Ian Bennett of Canadian Mint Censors Our Analyst, Mr. Tomi Ahonen

image_1089_6475

This article seems like an episode of an alternate universe. First and foremost, I have never been censored before. And even now, more than a day after the fact, I cannot get my head around the fact that this happened. Or why. THE INVITE So, first the what. I was invited by the Canadian Mint [yes, the people who actually manufacture the coins] to speak to the 26th annual Mint Directors Conference, that is running right now in Canberra, Australia. I have a formal, signed invitation letter from the Canadian Mint, dated November 6, 2009, inviting me to speak at the opening session chaired by

Read More...