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Taiwan’s GDP Forecast Gets a Boost From Local Think Tank

The Taiwan Institute of Economic Research (TIER) raised its projection for Taiwan’s economic growth in 2015 on Jan. 26.

TIER, the Taipei-based private research organization, said that improving global economy and a better outlook on domestic consumption can be expected in Taiwan, due to plunging oil prices. TIER said that the nation’s GDP can be expected to grow 3.67% this year, up 0.19 percentage points over its previous forecast set in November.

“The revision is primarily because of the recent decline in international crude oil prices, which could help boost Taiwan’s domestic consumption growth to 2.71% this year, up 0.24 percentage points over TIER’s previous forecast in November,” said Gordon Sun (孫明德), director of TIER’s Macroeconomic Forecasting Center.

Although the nation’s economy as well as the global economy are and will continue to improve and be rebooted which will be led by a strong recovery in the U.S., Sun warned that there will still be uncertainties in Taiwan’s trade and export outlook over 2015 because of weak demand in Europe and China.

TIER’s new GDP estimate was slightly lower than the data from another local leading economic think tank, the Chung-Hua Institution for Economic Research. The institution forecast in December that Taiwan’s GDP will grow 3.5% in 2015, up from the 3.43% growth which was expected in 2014.

Academia Sinica, Taiwan’s top research institution, said in last December that the nation’s GDP growth could edge lower to 3.38% in 2015 from the 3.42% it expected for 2014, because of slowing economic growth in China, leading to weaker demand for Taiwanese exports and a potential drop in investment.